Analysts Debate Strength of al-Shabab

September 27,2013

Mary Italo, center, grieves with other relatives for her son Thomas Abayo Italo, 33, who was killed in the Westgate Mall attack, as they wait to receive his body at the mortuary in Nairobi, Kenya Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2013.

The attack on a mall in Kenya this week by a radical Islamic group came as a surprise to many. The Somalia-based al-Shabab had lost territory and influence over the past few years. But as policymakers coordinate a response to the terror attacks, some analysts warn against an aggressive military response inside Somalia that could alienate locals, and increase support for extremists.

Since Kenya joined the African Union Mission in Somalia with the backing of Ethiopian troops, al-Shabab’s hold on southern Somalia seems to have weakened.

Its attacks seemed to be reduced to hit-and-run attacks or the use of suicide bombers.

Until now.

This week, several fighters attacked Nairobi’s Westgate mall with machine guns, grenades and other weaponry. Al-Shabab claimed credit.

Some analysts say the change in tactics comes as the result of internal feuding between factions. They say hardliners want spectacular attacks on regional enemies that can also improve recruitment, while others, dubbed “nationalists,” want the focus to stay strictly within Somalia.

The hardliners are led by Ahmed Abdi Godane, who has quarreled with other members of al-Shabab and executed top commanders including American-born militant Omar Hammami. He is said to have criticized the brutal treatment of fellow Muslims by al-Shabab’s occupying forces. ….