Renato Solidum heads the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. His office produced the risk analysis of earthquake scenarios. He says these new maps help planners with what he calls their “disaster imagination.”

“Sometimes in order to convince decision-makers and even(other) people to do things right away is, you have to show how many people will die, how many buildings will suffer, how many millions of pesos would you need to rehabilitate (restore) or replace this. You need damage or impact figures, rather than the threat.”

In the risk analysis project, one scenario shows a 7-point-2 earthquake in the Manila area would result in 37,000 deaths. The damage would cost an estimated 56 million dollars to repair.

The Philippines not only suffers from natural disasters. Its population centers have factors, or issues, that increase the chance of risk. They include fast growth and violations of rules like building codes. Other concerns include poor people living in areas that often flood, and poor solid-waste treatment.

Researchers on the project created what they call an “exposure database.” It combines population and structural information, such as a building’s age and where development has spread. In exchange for getting the computer software, city planners have to add details from their localities to the database.

Ishmael Narag is a researcher with the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. He says being prepared for disasters does not have to depend on technology. He says smaller, poorer communities can use available information from population counts and other studies. He says this information can help them come up with their own estimate of risk.