Such an agreement would push the United States to protect Afghanistan from foreign aggression. John Wood says this is a direction the Obama Administration would not be likely to take. He notes the opinion is his own, and not necessarily that of his organization. Mr. Wood says President Karzai has his own concerns over American demands.

“The other sticking point, I believe, still revolves around the degree of autonomy that US Special Operations Forces might have, or the CIA may have, to continue to operate independently and with no oversight or prior approval of the Afghan government.”

Last week, the Afghan leader criticized the United States and NATO forces for carrying out air raids and other operations in his country. He said such actions violate Afghanistan’s territorial independence in the name of fighting terrorism. He said he would never permit that under the proposed Bilateral Security Agreement, or BSA.

“If the United States and its NATO allies continue to demand that even after signing of the BSA they will have the freedom to attack our people, our villages, the Afghan people will never allow them that.”

Afghan experts warn that not having an effective agreement to support Afghan forces after international forces leave could empower the Taliban and other militants. Hamidullah Farooqi once served as Afghanistan’s foreign minister.

“The Taliban and the other armed forces against the Afghan government, they’re also seeing an opportunity for themselves that 2014, (the) international community is leaving, they might feel they are going to be able to capture again the political power.”