Joseph Hanlon has written about Mozambique and Southern Africa for about 30 years. Mr. Hanlon says he is not too concerned about a return to war, mainly because so many things have changed in 21 years.
“It’s not a return to war because neither side could wage a war. If you go back to the 1990s, Renamo was supported extensively by apartheid South Africa and informally by the United States; they had substantial military capacity.”
But today, he says, Renamo has guerrillas who are in their 50s and 60s. And Mozambique chose to have a small military after the civil war and thus lacks military power. So he says neither side can return to fighting.
Researcher Elisabete Azevedo-Harman is with Chatham House, a London-based policy center. She says the roots of this latest conflict go back many years. And, she says the reasons involve money and power. She says Renamo has never been a major player in politics, partly because of the way the political system of Mozambique was established.
She also says the group never has succeeded in changing its members from guerrilla fighters to political operators. And, they have lost popular support for that reason.
Mozambique’s increasing wealth from natural gas also presents a problem for Renamo. Ms. Azevedo-Harman says that makes the group feel far from economic power as well as political power.
Mr. Hanlon says he expects leaders to look to the past to settle the current issues. He says perhaps the ruling party should let money settle the problem.
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2013-11-25
2013-11-25
2013-11-25
2013-11-25
2013-11-25
2013-11-25