Potential sources of geopolitical shock include Syria, Iran and North Korea.

“Unfortunately,” he said, We kind of live in a world where there are a number of places where this shock could come from at any given moment.”

Cautious optimism?

Overall, Howell says the index does not indicate a return to cautious optimism. Instead, it’s more a feeling of being less alarmed.

There’s growing concern, he says, that the established economic, business and political systems that fared well in the 20th Century may not be up to the task in the 21st Century.

“We’re seeing at least in the industrialized world a real concern over structural issues, structural unemployment. And also an appreciation that the monetary and fiscal remedies that were put forth in the 70s and 80s and 90s have maybe run their limits in that fact that we’re dealing with a period of major structural change, economic level,” he said.

The index says there’s a perception of a lack of bold leadership around the world and an unwillingness to cooperate to solve common problems.

“What is missing is the efforts of particularly those who are in the leadership position sort of connecting the dots for the public and saying, if we do this and we handle this policy issue, it is going to impact this other issue. Or if we actually focus purely on this from a national context, we’re going to miss the big story because globally this is happening. I think we need a much more of a holistic and systematic approach and frame these issues for the public,” he said.