South of the border, in Ukraine, Victor Yanukovych became President last February. Since then, critics say, he has degraded press freedom, rigged local elections and threatened non-governmental organizations. After the prosecutions of ministers of the prior government, U.S. and European Union officials warned him against using the justice system to selectively target his political opponents.

But the opposition’s mismanagement of Ukraine over the previous five years partly opened the door to President Yanukovych’s power grab.

Lukyanov believes that a new opposition will emerge in Ukraine, a country that is a patchwork of linguistic, regional and historical loyalties. "Probably the new opposition should emerge sooner or later, but not the old one," said the Russian analyst.

The director of the Razumkov Center in Kyiv, Valeriy Chaliy, said Ukraine leaders have to balance their nation between Russia and the European Union. A move too far in the authoritarian direction would threaten relations with the European Union.

"Ukraine will remain taking steps to the European-style democracy," said Chaliy. "And I cannot imagine that Ukraine will go the way of Russia. It is a completely different situation."

Chaliy and others say that the Slavic world’s wild card is Belarus.

At a time when Belarus has bad relations with Russia, President Alexander Lukashenko deeply alienated the European Union by ordering arrests of opposition politicians, journalists and activists. The crackdown has been so intense that people in Poland compare it to 1981 when the communist government declared martial law against the Solidarity movement.