The study does not suggest that climate alone triggers war. But, Hsiang says, combined with other factors it can deliver the final blow.
“It’s very important to remember that political situations, social situations, economic conditions are all very important to the onset of organized violence. But what we are finding is that those things when combined with climatic changes seem to make violence more likely.”
Halvard Buhaug, an expert on security and climate issues at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway, says the correlation between climate and conflictis credible. But he adds that if climate is driving violence, the study authors fail to explain why.
“I think it is imperative to demonstrate that food availability, food prices, crop production etc., vary systematically with these ENSO cycles in areas where we do observe conflict that are sensitive to the ENSOs. Unless we are able to establish that connection, I think it’s too early to claim a causal relationship here.”
Solomon Hsiang agrees. He says the strong association between climate and conflict deserves more study. “Now what we’re doing is we’re pulling together new datasets and we’re doing additional research to try and dig deeper and figure out what are the underlying mechanisms that are really producing this result.”
Forecasters can now predict with greater certainty an El Nino or La Nina cycle two years in advance. Hsiang says the results could have important implications for agriculture and relief services.
最新
2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27