Sumner says, “Our research suggests perhaps only one in four or maybe one in five poor people live in fragile states. Now that doesn’t mean those countries aren’t important, and they need support. It just questions whether the emphasis on fragile states perhaps has been overdone.”

The Institute of Development Studies research fellow says it’s important to remember that poor people haven’t moved. It’s just the countries they live in have gotten better off.

“Over the last three to five years, the countries with very large populations, like Nigeria, Pakistan, India, Indonesia – once they move or transition to middle income status, that of course pushes a larger proportion of the world’s poor into the middle income country group,” he says.

The World Bank has estimated that even if the Millennium Development Goals are met, there’ll still be about one billion poor people in the world in 2015.