While an economic analysis looks cold in the face of potential war, Institute of Security Studies African Conflict Prevention Director Roba Sharamo said such analysis are often effective in persuading leaders.
"Often politicians are driven by other interests," Sharamo said. "But I think the economic figures which are reflected in this study are quite critical in the sense that it really shows the reality of war might cost them, what peace might bring to them. It is important for all of them to exercise some sort of restraint."
While the $100 billion price tag of war seems steep, the figures are based on current projections and do not even include the potential of an independent South Sudan. Many analysts in the region expect a newly independent South Sudan to immediately join the East African Community and rapidly increase trade with its neighbors.
The region's vast deposits of oil are expected to be a major catalyst for the south's development. Countries in East Africa are also preparing for a boom in southern Sudan. Kenya has already secured funding for the construction of a multi-billion dollar port on its northern coast to export Sudanese oil. Uganda is also looking to build a pipeline and railway to the southern capital, Juba.
Standing in the way of this economic boom is a renewed civil war between north and south. The referendum, being held January 9, is the final phase of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement which ended a 21-year civil war in 2005. While President Omar al-Bashir has promised to accept the results, delays in referendum registration and difficult negotiations over the border and oil-sharing have prompted some northern officials to call for a delay in the vote.
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2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27
2013-11-27