Peacekeeping Officials: ECOWAS Invasion of Ivory Coast Unlikely

18 January 2011

Ivory Coast strongman Laurent Gbagbo, left, talks with Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, an African Union envoy sent to mediate the ongoing Ivorian political standoff, following a meeting at the presidential palace in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Jan 17, 2011

"The use of legitimate force," to quote the agreement signed by 15 West African leaders, was supposed to be the last resort the West African bloc would turn to if Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo did not concede the elections that the African Union says he lost.

But 10 days shy of two months of failed negotiations to pry Gabgbo from power, the threat of a West African invasion of its second-largest economy appears unlikely or, at best, a controversial prospect between the leaders who agreed to it.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan chairs the Economic Community of West African States and has led the bloc's efforts to oust President Gbagbo from power.

If mediation doesn't work, the bloc says it has 6,500 troops on standby, ready to invade and capture Gbagbo. On January 7, though, Ghanaian President John Atta Mills said Ghana would not participate in such an effort.

Ghana has 500 peacekeepers in Ivory Coast. Mills told reporters that sending in a military force would not bring peace to Ivory Coast, and Research Head Kweis Anning at the Kofi Annan Peacekeeping Training Center agrees.