Economic Turbulence Forecast for 2012
December 22, 2011
There are encouraging signs for the world's largest economy as 2011 comes to an end. American consumers are spending more, the housing market is improving, and employers are laying off fewer workers.
But the unresolved debt crisis in Europe, the slowdown in China and U.S. spending cuts pose a serious challenge for policy makers as 2012 begins
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High unemployment in the United States, rising debt and Congress' inability to do anything about it were major stories in 2011. But some bright spots are emerging as the year comes to a close, according to George L. Perry, a senior fellow for economic studies at the Brookings Institution.
"One was the export sector which grew really very well. Another area was construction outside of home building. Business construction was picking up and construction in particular areas like commercial."
U.S. unemployment is at its lowest level in more than two and a half years, and consumer confidence is rising. But there are dark clouds ahead as the New Year begins. China, the world's fastest growing economy, is slowing down, and Europe's debt crisis shows few signs of easing.
"We export a great deal to Europe," Perry points out. "And if Europe falls into another recession, that export growth is going to end. And that will affect jobs in the U.S. and cause the U.S. to move towards recession."
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