Political Instability, Economic Woes Fuel Kyrgyz Interethnic Unrest

17 June 2010

Uzbek refugees seen near the eastern Uzbek city of Andijon while waiting to cross the border into Uzbekistan, 14 Jun 2010

Kyrgyzstan has slipped into a precarious peace. The violence that killed nearly 200 people in the southern region has abated, but an observer with Human Rights Watch calls the situation extremely tense and highly volatile. Kyrgyzstan and its neighbors have long been buffeted by ethnic tensions, but political and social factors also have played a role in promoting the recent violence.

Many ethnic Uzbeks in the southern Kyrgyzstan city of Osh, the scene of the heaviest violence, are reported to have barricaded themselves for fear of fresh attacks by their ethnic Kyrgyz neighbors.

Real blame

But who is to blame for the ethnic clashes?

The origins are murky, but reports point to a fist fight between some Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights says the clashes appear to have been well-organized, fueling suspicions about the possible role of former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was toppled in April and is now living in Belarus. He has denied involvement.

But Lauren Goodrich, senior Eurasia analyst at the private intelligence firm STRATFOR, says the real blame goes to the late Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

"The ethnic tension became especially fierce after 1924," said Goodrich. "That's when Stalin drew the lines and divided up the most important territory in all of Central Asia [Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan] between three different ethnic groups. That was unheard of. And it was a formula that Stalin had created just to create ethnic tension in order to prevent any one power from ever rising in Central Asia."