Analysts Warn Renewed War in Sudan Would Cost $100 Billion

25 November 2010

New Study on Sudan

There are less than 50 days left before southern Sudan holds a critical referendum on secession from the north. This vote could see Africa's largest country split in two, but fears amounting that technical problems, political stalling and protracted negotiations could delay the vote and spark a renewed civil war.

The international warnings about human suffering and violence have not provoked the unity between north and south that observers hope would ensure and amicable split, so a coalition of economic, political and social groups are offering a different perspective.

Their report, released Thursday, in Nairobi is now warning both Sudanese and international stakeholders that a renewed civil war in the wake of the referendum could cost as much as $100 billion.

According to the coalition, the amount is a conservative estimate spread over 10 years. And the group says this cost will not be borne by Sudan alone. Only about half of the $100 billion will be lost by Sudan. The report calculates anywhere from $25-30 billion would be lost by neighbors Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, due to decreased trade with the region. The amounts make up more than 30 percent of each nation's GDP.

The report also calculates that as much as $25 billion would be required over 10 years from the international community in the form of peacekeeping and humanitarian aid to manage the conflict.