2013 will be the year of an EU-US free trade agreement, or at least serious negotiations towards that goal. Although this possibility has been raised many times before, only to stall in the face of tough regulatory or subsidy issues, the economic stakes are higher and the political obstacles are lower next year. Both the EU and the US desperately need faster economic growth. Monetary policy is essentially exhausted; fiscal policy is set to tighten. That leaves trade: expanding markets by removing tariffs and – more importantly – non-tariff barriers, such as licencing requirements and anti-dumping measures. Small wonder that the Obama administration is actively pursuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership to the west and raising the prospect of a US-EU deal in the east.
2013年,欧盟(EU)和美国将签订自由贸易协定,或者至少朝着这一目标展开严肃的谈判。之前,双方曾有多次机会签订协定,结果却因棘手的监管或补贴问题而未能成行。但明年的情况将有所不同,从经济上讲,此事的紧迫性将会加大,从政治上讲,此事遇到的障碍将会减少。欧盟和美国都迫切需要加快经济增长。货币政策基本上已经用光了,而财政政策将会收紧。如今只剩下贸易了,也就是通过取消关税(更重要的是取消许可证制和反倾销措施等非关税壁垒)来扩大市常难怪奥巴马(Obama)政府积极向西方宣扬《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》(TPP),并在东方提出美欧签订贸易协定的前景。
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