When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone.according to a 2002 United Nations report.
While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky.the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed.
E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February.The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.
The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.
当某种预报方法限制了提前几个月预测1997年厄尔尼诺现象的时候,哥伦比亚大学的研究人员说他们的方法可以提前两年预测厄尔尼诺现象。这对全世界各地的政府、农民和其他寻求为厄尔尼诺带来的干旱和大雨做准备的人来说是一条好消息。
研究人员使用计算机把1980年和2000年之间的海面温度和后来的厄尔尼诺的发生联系起来,进而能够用更早的海面温度预计1857年的厄尔尼诺现象。研究结果刊登在最新的《自然》杂志上。
研究人员说他们的方法并不完美,但加利福尼亚大学的气象学家Bryan C.Weare说这种方法显示出厄尔尼诺是可以预测的,尽管他自己并没有参加研究工作。
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