The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over man years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for new York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. if the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining todays forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar . The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
31 What factor is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method? __________
A Imagination of the forecaster.
B Necessary amount of information.
C Practical knowledge of the forecaster.
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