7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved.
A、作者并没有给出呼吸疾病患者的基数。如果基数比较小,那么即使增加少量的人,也会导致增长的比值很大。也是呼吸疾病患者确实大量增加了,也不一定说明是空气污染造成的。常识告诉我们,气候变化也可能造成呼吸疾病。
B、即使是由于空气污染造成的,也并不一定是由于C地区的工厂增加导致的。空气污染恶化可能和C地区的气候变化有关,例如季风的变化,季风变化后可能就带不走C地区工厂排放的废气,造成C地区的废气积累。另外,C地区的工厂数增加也存在着基数问题。
C、即使是因为C地区的工厂数增加了,导致了C地区的空气污染恶化,也并非是由于FB不采取环境保护的缘故。工厂数增加可能是由于C地区经济快速发展。国家的宏观调控对C地区也有影响。
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