备考资料：GMAT优秀作文精选（106）_GMAT写作

备考资料：GMAT优秀作文精选（106）

　　First, the manager assumes that the sequence of sales experienced by the wine store reflects a general causal pattern. However, there is little evidence to support this assumption. While perhaps indicative of such a pattern, the wine store sales merely demonstrate a correlation between sales of wine from a country and the playing of music from that country. To establish a causal connection between these events it would be necessary to examine and eliminate other possible factors that might account for this phenomenon. In any case, it is highly questionable whether evidence gathered over a one-month period is sufficient to establish the general claim in question.

　　Second, the manager assumes that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is consistent with the statement that the wine store sold more French than Italian wine on days when French music was played and vice versa when Italian music was played that no net increase in sales, and thus profit, was realized by this method. For example, it is possible that on days when French music was played seven bottles of French wine were sold and three bottles of Italian whereas the reverse was the case when Italian music was played, and that in both instances only 10 bottles were sold.

　　In conclusion, the managers recommendation is based on two dubious assumptions. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to provide additional evidence to support the claim that sales of an item are influenced by the type of music played. Additionally, the manager would have to provide evidence that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music.