2. The past three months trend does not guarantee the same in the future.

　　3. Whether the reports from the local clothing stores and stores that sell products for the home are reliable or not are still open to doubt, thus making the authors suggestion groundless.

　　1， 降低和上升，是否存在必然的关系。忽略他因。

　　2， 三个月的时间是否能说明一种趋势?

　　Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.

　　In the first place, the authors conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire years sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.

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