82. In this editorial the author asserts that opinion polls are little better than random
guesses to predicting outcomes of presidential elections. The authors basis for this
assertion is that opinion polls measure only the preferences of voters at the time of the
poll and that many voters change their preferences several time before voting―some
remaining undecided until the moment they cast their vote. The authors reasoning is
unconvincing in two critical respects.
First of alt the predictions based on random guessing are such that the greater the
number of candidates, the less likely the prediction will be correct. The reason for this is
obvious: random guessing requires that no outside information be allowed to influence
the guess. Predictions based on opinion polls, on the other hand, will differ considerably
from those based on random guesses simply because outside information will influence
the result. For example, in a four-person race, random guessing would yield the correct
prediction 25 percent of the time, whereas the percentage of correct predictions based
on opinion polls would be much higher. The reason for this disparity is simple. Opinion
polls enable us to narrow the choices. That is, opinion polls serve to reduce the number
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