22. The conclusion in this argument is that increased vigilance by drug enforcement
authorities has resulted in an increase in the illegal use of cocaine. The author reaches
this conclusion on the grounds that drug traffickers have responded to increased
enforcement efforts by switching from bulkier and riskier drugs to cocaine. Presumably,
the authors reasoning is that the increased enforcement efforts inadvertently brought
about an increase in the supply of cocaine which, in turn, brought about the observed
increase in the illegal use of cocaine. This line of reasoning is problematic in two
important respects.
In the first place, the author has engaged in after this, therefore because of this
reasoning. The only reason offered for believing that the increased vigilance caused the
increase in cocaine use is the fact that the former preceded the latter. No additional
evidence linking the two events is offered in the argument, thus leaving open the
possibility that the two events are not causally related but merely correlated. This in turn
leaves open the possibility that factors other than the one cited are responsible for the
increase in cocaine use.
In the second place, the author assumes that an increase in the supply of cocaine is
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