consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years,

　　then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase

　　in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more

　　opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second,

　　assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario

　　reflects the facts, the firms recommendation would be ill-founded.

　　Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola

　　consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of

　　the studies. Moreover, while the phrase studies suggest may appear to lend credibility

　　to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in

　　the absence of any information about them.

　　In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early

　　Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we

　　would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need

　　more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.

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