Based on the poll, The Literary Digest predicted that Landon would win the 1936 presidential election with 57.1% of the popular vote and an electoral college margin of 370 to 161. In fact, Roosevelt won the election with 60.8% of the popular vote and an electoral college landslide of 523 to 8 . Roosevelt won 46 of 48 states, losing only Maine and Vermont. What went wrong? Clearly the sample was skewed towards wealthier voters--those who could afford magazine subscriptions, cars, phones, and club memberships in the depths of the Great Depression. It had surveyed firstly its own readers, a group with disposable incomes well above the national average of the time, shown in part by their ability still to afford a magazine subscription during the depths of the Great Depression, and then two other readily available lists: that of registered automobile owners and that of telephone users. While such lists might come close to providing a statistically accurate cross-section of Americans today, this assumption was manifestly incorrect in the 1930s. Both groups had incomes well above the national average of the day, which resulted in lists of voters far more likely to support Republicans than a truly typical voter of the time.
再比如我们现在用的最多的微博和微信。都说互联网不仅仅是一场科技的革命还是信息的革命。确实,很多人通过微博维权,媒体曝光了社会的阴暗角落。强拆事件,表叔,房姐,郭美美等通过微博的转发而遭人唾骂,如果只有纸质媒体或者垄断性的电台,可能信息早就被和谐掉了。可是从另一方面,信息却更闭塞了。我们通常只会关注自己崇拜的明星,感兴趣的讨论组,价值观相一致的意见领袖。同样的我们的粉丝也视我们与他们价值观相吻合的人物。粉丝和关注的另一大组成部分来源于我们生活圈子中的同学,同事,朋友和亲人。所有的这些人分享了某种特定的生活方式和意识形态。我们发了一条带有强烈感情或者价值倾向的微博,看到好评如潮,转发无数,窃以为自己说的话掷地有声,引发了空前的轰动。可事实是,我们只是在一个本就持有相同价值观的小圈子内丢了一块石头而已。而反对的声音,由于粉丝和关注所设定的屏蔽机制,没有任何参与讨论的机会,甚至都不会看到相反的意见。来自于本就对于我们认可的群体的information,使得information丧失了它的客观性。其实任何社交媒体都存在这样一个问题,我们看到的别人推送的资讯和转发的话题都是被过滤过的被我们自己过滤了。
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