But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China,oil exporters and Japan.
For the past 18 months,the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances,involving a slump in the US dollar,much higher global interest rates and a global recession,risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.
It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit,Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms,China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi,and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia ,a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.
一、参考译文:
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家拉古拉姆拉詹的观点可以概括为两个方面:一方面庆祝世界经济4年来的出色表现,另一方面警告大好时光可能会惨淡收场。
国际货币基金组织与世界银行的年会本周末将在新加坡召开。在此之前,拉詹先生在伦敦接受了《金融时报》采访并在本报今天的报纸上撰文。他的观点表明,国际货币基金组织对世界经济的基本状况及其前景比先前更为乐观。
国际货币基金组织透露了对经济所作的部分预测,它们显示,该组织预计2006年全球经济增长为5.1%,而相比之下,该组织于今年4月所作的上一次预测为4.8%.
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