Rising costs are also a problem. Exxon, which is known for its stringent financial discipline, saw costs rise almost twice as fast as revenue in the third quarter. The shortage of labour and equipment that is feeding this inflation is also causing delays to new projects. And there are not enough new projects in the pipeline. The International Energy Agency reckons that the expansion plans of the big Western and state-owned oil firms will leave the world 12.5m barrels per day short of requirements in 2015.

　　Despite this looming deficit and the glaring price signal, all the big companies except Total produced less oil and gas in the third quarter than they did in the same period last year. According to Citigroup, the average decline in overall output was 3.3%. If the relatively steady supply of natural gas is stripped out, the numbers look even worse: oil production fell by 9% on average. No matter how high the price goes, the oil majors cannot make a profit from oil they do not produce.

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