Mr Gordon sees it as possible that there were only a few trulyfundamental innovationsthe ability to use power on a large scale, to keep housescomfortable regardless of outside temperature, to get from any A to any B, totalk to anyone you need toand that they have mostly been made. There will be more innovationbut it willnot change the way the world works in the way electricity, internal-combustionengines, plumbing, petrochemicals and the telephone have. Mr Cowen is morewilling to imagine big technological gains ahead, but he thinks there are nomore low-hanging fruit. Turning terabytes of genomic knowledge into medicalbenefit is a lot harder than discovering and mass producing antibiotics.
戈登认为,造成这种情况的原因可能在于,只有少数几个创新属于真正的根本性创新大规模利用电力的能力、不管外面温度如何都能保持房屋舒适的能力、从任意一个地方到达另外一个地方的能力、同你需要与其交谈的人进行交谈的能力并且它们大都已经被人们创造出来。将来会出现更多的创新但这不会改变世界对电力、内燃机、排水管道、石化产品和电话的使用方式。柯文更愿意设想未来会出现巨大的技术进步,不过,他认为没有多少容易实现的目标。同发现并大批量生产抗生素相比,将万亿字节的基因知识转化为医学成要困难得多。
The pessimistssecond line of argument is based on how much invention is going on.Amid unconvincing appeals to the number of patents filed and databases of innovations puttogether quite subjectively, Mr Cowen cites interesting work by Charles Jones,an economist at Stanford University. In a 2002 paper Mr Jones studied thecontribution of different factors to growth in American per-capita incomes inthe period 1950-93. His work indicated that some 80% of income growth was dueto rising educational attainment and greater research intensity . Because neitherfactor can continue growing ceaselessly, in the absence of some new factorcoming into play growth is likely to slow.
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