医学提供了另一个例子。在美国,出生时的预期寿命从20世纪开始时的49岁飞速上涨到1980年的74岁。从那之后,科技发展取得了巨大的成果。然而,到2011年,美国人的预期寿命仅停留在78.7岁。尽管花在科研上的资金达数千亿美元,但是人们依旧会得癌症、心脏病、中风和器官衰竭等疾病。分子医学的成果根本没法同改善卫生设施的效果相提并论。
To those fortunate enough to benefit from the best that the worldhas to offer, the fact that it offers no more can disappoint. As Mr Thiel andhis colleagues at the Founders Fund, a venture-capital company, put it: We wantedflying cars, instead we got 140 characters. A world where allcan use Twitter but hardly any can commute by air is less impressive than thefutures dreamed of in the past.
对于那些足够幸运因而能从世界不得不提供的最好的事情中获益的人来说,世界再也不能提供什么的事实会让他们大失所望。正如泰尔及其风险投资公司创始人基金的伙伴所指出的那样:我们想要会飞的汽车,却得到了短短几句话。如今,人人都能使用Twitter却几乎无人能够乘飞机上下班,同过去所梦想的未来相比,这样的一个世界给人留不下什么印象。
The first thing to point out about this appeal to experience andexpectation is that the science fiction of the mid-20th century, important asit may have been to people who became entrepreneurs or economists with a tastefor the big picture, constituted neither serious technological forecasting nora binding commitment. It was a celebration through extrapolation of thencurrent progress in speed, power and distance. For cars read flying cars; forbattlecruisers read space cruisers.
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