Full exploitation of a technology can take far longer than that.Innovation and technology, though talked of almost interchangeably, are not thesame thing. Innovation is what people newly know how to do. Technology is whatthey are actually doing; and that is what matters to the economy. Steel boxesand diesel engines have been around since the 1900s, and their use together incontainerised shipping goes back to the 1950s. But their great impact as thebackbone of global trade did not come for decades after that.
相比之下,技术的全面推广可能要耗费更多的时间。尽管在谈到创新和技术时几乎都是交替使用,但两者不是一回事。创新是人们对怎样去做的新想法,技术是人们实际上正在做什么;这正是技术对经济的影响所在。钢制的盒子和柴油发动机在20世纪就已经出现,把两者共同应用到集装箱航运是在20世纪50年代。但是,它们作为全球贸易支柱的影响力在此之后的几十年才出现。
Roughly a century lapsed between the first commercial deployments ofJames Watt s steam engine and steam s peak contribution to British growth. Somefour decades separated the critical innovations in electrical engineering ofthe 1880s and the broad influence of electrification on economic growth. MrGordon himself notes that the innovations of the late 19th century droveproductivity growth until the early 1970s; it is rather uncharitable of him toassume that the post-2004 slump represents the full exhaustion of potentialgains from information technology.
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