when we have a bad year, we re essentially flat, Parag Shah, a Bridgewater executive, told me. And when we have a good year, we have a great year.
Goldman and Bridgewater may well bounce back, but the combination of extraordinary pay and ordinary performance is going to occur more and more in the coming years.
Outside of the highfliers on the Alpha list, it s already the norm. Since 2000, the average hedge fund hasn t done any better, after fees, than the market as a whole, according to research by David A. Hsieh, a finance professor at Duke. Still, even mediocre managers, after a lucky year or two, are able to attract gobs of capital and charge 2 and 20.
So are today s hedge fund managers really worth it? Sure, but only if they deliver the sort of performance that Mr. Simons has, and very few will in the years ahead. More to the point, it s extremely difficult to know who the stars will be.
In all sorts of walks of life, people tend to think that the past is a better predictor of the future than it really is. That s why journeyman baseball playera Yankees pitcher named Carl Pavano comes to mind-are able to sign huge contracts based on a single good season it s also why so many investors chase returns.
The genius of the world s hedge fund managers isn t only in how they invest their money. It also lies in having set up an industry that takes advantage of a timeless human trait.
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