The first of the two wars George Bush launched after September 11th looked initially like a success, and compared with the second it still is. AlQaeda operated openly in Afghanistan and enjoyed the protection of its noxious Taliban regime, which refused America s request to hand Mr bin Laden over. America s invasion, one month after America itself had been attacked, therefore enjoyed broad international support.
The fighting ended swiftly and the political aftermath went as well as could be expected in a polity as tangled as Afghanistan s. By 2004 a firstever free election had legitimated the presidency of Hamid Karzai. A ramshackle but representative parliament took office in 2005. The country is plagued by warlordism and the opium trade, and Taliban fighters are mounting a challenge in the south. But they do not yet look capable of dislodging the new government in Kabul.
Even though Mr bin Laden himself eluded America s forces in Afghanistan, the invasion deprived alQaeda of a haven for planning and training. This achievement, however, was cancelled out by the consequences of Mr Bush s second war: the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. There, three and a half years on, fighting and terrorism kill hundreds every month, providing the jihadists with both a banner around which to recruit and a live arena in which to sharpen their military skills.
Why has Iraq turned out so much worse than Afghanistan? Not only because of the familiar catalogue of Rumsfeldian incompetence-disbanding Iraq s army, committing too few American troops-but also because of alQaeda itself. Like most Sunni extremists, some in alQaeda regard Shia Muslims as virtual apostates. Abu Musab alZarqawi, the movement s leader in Iraq, managed before being killed last June to organise so many attacks on Shias and their holy places that after a long forbearance the Shias at last struck back, turning what had been an insurgency against the Americans and the new government into a bitter sectarian war.
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