The fear is that a rise in revenues from the tax could be far outweighed by years of lostgrowth if consumers take fright. The only other consumption-tax rise, of 2% in 1997, wasblamed for consigning Japan to a second lost decade, though this coincided with other eventssuch as the Asian financial crisis. Without counting broader knock-on effects, says RobertFeldman of Morgan Stanley, the 3% rise scheduled for 2014 would reduce GDP by over 1%.
最大的隐患是如若消费者产生恐慌心理,税收的收益会远低于经济增长放缓的损失。唯一的一次消费税增税出现在1997年,增加了2%,被指责使日本陷入了二次衰退。尽管这次衰退还有这其他诸如亚洲金融危机等的原因。摩根斯坦利的Robert Feldman表示,不算其带来的连锁效应,2014年增税3%会使GDP减少至少1%。
An alternative could be to lift the tax more gradually. Koichi Hamada, an economist at YaleUniversity who helped to design Abenomics, has said that the levy could be raised inincrements of 1% over five years. Mr Abes panel will study this option, among others. Aslong as the tax is raised significantly in some way, says Naka Matsuzawa at NomuraSecurities, the bond market would probably stay calm.
另一种方法是更循序渐进的增税。耶鲁大学的经济学家Koichi Hamada参与设计了安倍经济计划。他表示增税可以在未来的五年增加1%。安倍先生的团队会研究这一策略。野村证券的Naka Matsuzawa认为,如果增税,债券市场可能会保持冷静。
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