最近几个月,之前争论干涉叙利亚的人安静了。不是因为叙利亚人民的苦难有所减少,而是更多了。死亡人数现在被认为超过了10万,200万人离开这个国家,2300万人中的四分之一被迫在国内转移。但是之前没有干涉导致的结果增强了反对干涉的声音。叙利亚教派纷争增加,破坏者希望阿萨德的下台会带了和平。反对派之间纷争越多,给他们武器带来的破坏就越大。与基地组织有关的反对派在牺牲西方乐意看到的温和派的情况下实力有所增强。激进分子越强大,武装反对派的理由就越弱。
But the use of chemical weapons would tip the argument back in favour of intervention, forthree reasons. First, they are banned by international agreement, and if the rules of war areto have any force, then the world must do its best to ensure that they are respected.Second, however unwilling outside powers are to intervene, the world accepts that thereare limits to the atrocities that governments may perpetrate on their people: it was themassacre of 8,000 Bosnians by Serbs at Srebrenica in 1995 that provoked outside powers tointervene decisively in Yugoslavias civil war. Third, Americas credibility depends onintervening. Mr Obama made no response to a previous claim of chemical-weapons use. Itseems likely that Mr Assad was testing the water to see if he could get away with a biggerone. If he is allowed to, nobody will take American threats seriously, at least while Mr Obamais president. Why should Iran or North Korea, for instance, listen to him hector them abouttheir nuclear weapons programmes?
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