2015考研英语阅读原油和世界经济_大学英语阅读

2015考研英语阅读原油和世界经济

　　Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is drivingup the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? Andwhat damage could plausible future increases do?

　　要评估随之而来的风险，就得回答以下四个问题：是什么在推高油价?油价会高到什么地步?到目前为止，价格上涨可能带来的经济影响是什么?未来似乎合理的价格增长会造成怎样的损害?

　　The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to globalgrowth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequentexplanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. Inrecent months the worlds big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expandedquantitative easing or promised to keep rates low for longer.This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets,especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than theenactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, BenBernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE . Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a risein oil inventoriesexactly the opposite of what has happened.

　　其中较高价格的起源关系重大。举例来说，供给冲击对全球增长的危害要远大于需求增加导致的价格上涨。一种常见的解释是，中央银行增加货币供给推动了价格上涨。最近的几个月里，世界各大央行都向市场注入了流动性，实行量化宽松政策或者承诺现行的低利率将维持一段时间。这样一大批廉价货币让投资者涌入了硬资产领域，特别是石油，因此争论还在继续。但由于市场具有前瞻性，所以左右油价的应该是官方声明而不是量化宽松政策的实施。实际上，美联储主席本﹒伯南克并没有签署另一轮量化宽松政策，这一举动无疑挫败了市场信心。此外，如果价格被投机者操控，那么原油存货应该增加，而事实却恰好相反。

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