Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, whichin turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. Therecent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: aeuro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and Americasrecovery seems on stronger ground.
中央银行可以通过上调全球经济增长预期间接地影响原油价格,转而提升原油需求的增长预期。有间接证据支撑这一论点。最近的油价上涨与对世界经济的过分乐观是一致的:欧元区的灾难和中国的硬着陆似乎都不太可能上演,美国经济复苏的后劲十足。
But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver ofdearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than1m barrels a day of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from apipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, haveknocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil istemporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a paymentdispute with China.
但稍微乐观了一点的增长预期只是故事的一个部分,高油价一个更重要的推动因素是供给中断。总而言之,在最近几个月里,国际原油市场大概每天要减少一百万桶的原油供给。从南苏丹石油管道纠纷到北海机械故障,各种各样的非伊朗问题每天就会减少70万桶的原油供给量,另外50万桶左右临时的伊朗石油供给减少要归因于欧盟制裁和与中国的支付纠纷。
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