2015考研英语阅读原油和世界经济_大学英语阅读

2015考研英语阅读原油和世界经济

　　The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. Theextent of OPECs spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, anear-record high. And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were everto carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil passevery day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply adisruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, for instance,involved less than 5m b/d.

　　备用原油的缓冲效果已经不太显著，其中富国的原油储备处于五年来的历史低位。欧佩克的剩余产能大小无法确定，而沙特阿拉伯正在创造历史新高以每天1000万桶的速度生产原油。如果伊朗真的关闭霍尔木兹海峡这里每天有1700万桶原油通过，大约占世界原油供给量的20%那么将会出现更大的供给中断威胁。即使只是暂时关闭，所带来的负面影响也将超过以前任何一次原油冲击。例如，在1973年阿拉伯石油禁运中，每天的原油供给减少多达500万桶。

　　Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckonsthat the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel.He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iranimprove, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.