但是对经济增长和通胀的影响在不同的国家是有所区别的。美国作为一个石油净进口国和燃油税负较轻的国家,一个标准的规则是:石油价格增长10美元,会降低第一年0.2%左右的产出,第二年则会下降约0.5%。普遍预期其今年的经济增长将超过2%,看来增长会减速,但不太可能下降。
There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil thanin recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Risingemployment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And Americaseconomy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oilconsumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.
在任何情况下,美国都可以比近年来更有效地抵御昂贵的石油。究其原因,可以有以下几点:汽油价格的涨幅远小于2011年或2008年;逐步上升的就业给予消费者更多收入,从而用它来支付燃料花销;以及美国经济正在远离能源密集型,更少地依赖进口。在过去的两年里, GDP上涨的同时石油消费却在下降。
Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports arewell below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oilstays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas priceshave plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heatingunusually low. In January the share of consumers spending on energy products was thesecond-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spikingoil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.
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