新兴经济体之间的差异更大。从委内瑞拉到中东, 石油出口国都是贸易顺差,而石油进口国将会面临不断恶化的贸易平衡。2008年和2011年,燃料价格高昂是新兴经济体通货膨胀的主要原因。但如今不同了,占多数新型经济体消费组合很大比重的食品价格较为稳定。
But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emergingeconomies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil butalso from the weakening of European export markets.
但是有些国家将面临一些问题。在短期内,一些受冲击最大的新兴经济体将会出现在东欧。他们将忍受的不仅仅是愈加昂贵的石油价格,还有不断疲软的欧洲出口市场。
India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, soinflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To theextent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulatesand heavily subsidisestheprice of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only31% since January 2009, whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. Thedifference is a result of subsidies, frustrating Indias efforts to reduce its budget deficit.
印度也被波及。燃料是其批发价格指数一个很大的组成部分,因此,高油价将通过国内燃料成本导致通货膨胀率上升。印度调控并大量补贴柴油和煤油价格,这一点反映在财政预算上。据德意志银行统计,从2009年1月开始柴油价格上涨了31%,而在卢比市场原油价格已增长了180%。所不同的是补贴政策的效果挫败印度减少预算赤字的努力。
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