In the developed world, the period since the turn of the millennium has been a particulardisappointment. Since the end of 1999 the return on American equities has been 7.6percentage points a year lower than that on government bonds . That has leftmany corporate and public pension funds in deficit and many people with private pensionsfacing a delayed, or poorer, retirement. Understanding why equities have let investors downover the past decade will help them work out what to expect in the future.

　　在发达国家,自进入千禧年以来，股市令人特别失望。自从1999年年末起,美国股票回报为7.6个百分点,低于政府债券的回报。这导致许多企业和公共养老基金出现赤字而且许多私募养老金面临要么延期发放,要么发得更少,要么退休的境地。理解为什么股票在过去的十年间让投资者失望将有助于他们认识到对未来股市的期望是什么。

　　The long-term faith in equities is based on the theory that investors should be rewarded forthe riskiness of shares with a higher return, known as the equity risk premium 。That risk comes in two forms. The first is that shareholders get paid only when otherclaimants on a companys cashflow, such as workers, the taxman and creditors, havereceived their due. Profits and dividends are thus highly variable and can disappearaltogether when times get tough. The second risk is that share prices are volatile, more sothan bond prices. Since 1926 there have been seven calendar years when American equityinvestors have suffered a loss of more than 20%; investors in Treasuries have suffered nosuch calamitous years.

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