Another explanation for the high returns is a paradoxical one: that equities have becomeless risky. In the early part of the 20th century corporate accounts were more opaque andless reliable . Moststocks were owned by private investors with only a handful of individual shares. This leftthem more exposed to the risk of a single firm failing, which meant they put a lower valueon sharesor, to put it another way, they demanded a higher premium for owning them.

　　而另一种对高收益的解释却和第一种相互矛盾:股票的风险在降低。20世纪初期企业账目更加不透明而且可靠程度更低。大部分股票被那些私人投资者以个人股的形式所持有。这大大增加了单个公司破产给他们带来的风险。也就意味着人们认为股份的价值很低,换而言之，持有这些股份就会有更多的风险溢价。

　　Today most equities are owned by institutional investors who can assemble a diversifiedportfolio. Even small investors can own an index fund at low cost. The impact of onecompany failing is thus far smaller. This reduced risk has prompted investors to pay higherprices for shares; in other words, to accept a lower dividend yield. That may well haveincreased the ex post risk premium .

　　如今大部分股票被机构投资者所持有。这些投资者以多样化组合进行投资。即使是小投资者也能以较低的成本持有指数基金。这样受某个公司破产的影响也就很小了。风险的降低也促使投资者高价投资股票。换而言之，投资者要接受一个较低的股息收益率。这样也许会增加事后估计风险酬金的增加。。

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