The size and persistence of the ERP led some commentators in the late 1990s to come upwith an ingenious, if flawed, argument. In their book Dow 36,000, for instance, JamesGlassman and Kevin Hassett argued that the reliable outperformance of shares over bondsmeant that equities were not riskier at all. As a result, there need be no ex ante riskpremium.
股票风险溢价的规模及持续性使得一些时事评论员在20世纪90年代末提出了一个巧妙而有缺陷的论点。在《道琼斯指数36000点》一书中,James Glassman 和Kevin Hassett认为,股票优于债券的出色表现意味着股票根本没有风险。因此不需要事前风险溢价。
This time is not different
今非昔比
If this belief were correct, equity investors should have been willing to accept a lowerearnings yield. In the course of moving to the lower earnings yield, the market would havesoared to the 36,000 level of the books title. A lower ex ante risk premium implies higherreturns in the short term. The authors were proved right in one sense. Investors who boughtshares in 1999 did not earn a risk premium. But that will be of scant consolation to thosewho believed the book, since 13 years later the Dow is at around 13,000, not 36,000.
如果这种观点是正确的,股票投资者应该愿意接受较低的盈利收益。。在盈利收益走低的情况下,股票市场一路飙升到书中标题所说的36,000点。较低的事前评价风险溢价往往意味着短期内较高的回报。某种程度上作者的观点被证明是正确的。在1999年购买股票的投资者并没赚到风险溢价。但这对那些推崇这本书的人来说,显然缺少安慰。因为13年后,道指仅为 13,000点左右,远不是书中所说的36,000点。
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