One obvious problem with their reasoning was that, although equities might have beatenbonds over most long periods, the horizon of the average investor is much shorter. Therehave been many equity bear markets in history and investors are exposed to the real riskthat they will have to sell in the middle of one. Most shares are owned by professional fundmanagers, who have to report to their clients every three months. If a big bet on equitiesgoes wrong they cannot wait 20 years to be proved right. Clients will have deserted themlong before then.

　　按照他们的推断，一个显而易见的问题出现了，尽管在较长的周期内股票的收益可能已经超过了债券，但普通投资者却越来越目光短浅。史上曾出现过多次熊市但投资者们面临的风险是他们不得不在中间价位抛售手中的股票。那些每三个月向他们的客户汇报股市行情的基金经理持有大量股票。如果大笔赌注投在股票上而亏了，用不了他们等待20年来证明是正确的，客户早就会把他们抛弃。

　　The late-1990s debate illustrated a familiar pattern at the top of bull markets. When shareprices have already risen a lot, commentators scramble for reasons why they should riseeven further. In the 1980s those who queried whether the Japanese stockmarket wasexpensive on a minimal dividend yield and a sky-high price-earnings ratio were told thatWestern valuation methods did not apply in Tokyo. At the turn of the century manyassumed that, because the achieved ERP had been high in the past, it would be so in thefuture. But investors had their reasoning backwards. When share valuations are high, futurereturns are likely to be low and vice versa.

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