第一步是尽可能精确地界定股票风险溢价的范畴。Mssrs Dimson,Marsh和Staunton将股票风险溢价分成以下几个部分:股息收益率加上实际股息成长率,加上或减去价格与股息之比率中的变动值,最后再减去实际无风险利率。
In the period 1900-2011, the average world dividend yield was 4.1%; real dividendgrowth was just 0.8%; and the rerating of the market added 0.4%。 That comes to a realequity return of 5.4% 。 Stripping out therisk-free interest rate, the ERP was 4.4% versus short-term government debt and 3.5%versus longer-term government bonds .
从1900年到2011年,世界平均股息收益率为4.1%。实际股息增长率仅为0.8%。加上0.4%的市场重估价值就构成5.4%的实际股票收益。。除去无风险利率,与短期政府债券相比,股票风险溢价为4.4%。和长期政府债券相比,股票风险溢价为3.5%。
The dividend yield comprised the vast bulk of the return. This was true across all thecountries studied by the authors. Had investors consistently bought the highest-yieldingquintile of equity markets over the past 112 years they would have earned an averagenominal annual return of 13.3% compared with a return of just 5.4% for those buying thelowest-yielding quintile. High-dividend markets have also performed best so far thiscentury.
股息收益率包括高额回报。这是作者经过对许多国家的研究后证实的。与在收益率最低的15年内投资者在其购买股票后的年收益率仅为5.4%相比,投资者在过去112年中收益率最高的15年内持续购买股票后的平均名义年收益率为 13.3%。到本世纪为止,高股息市场的发展最为迅猛。
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