Messrs Shultz and Dam argue that the import surcharge was intended as anattention-getter and a bargaining chip. It allowed John Connally, Nixon s treasury secretaryand a Texan, to stride down the corridors of international finance with both guns blazing. Inthe face of this bravado America s trading partners duly backed down. By December theyagreed to let the dollar fall and the surcharge wasremoved. Nixon was able to present the humbling of the dollar as a political victory. But wereBarack Obama to emulate him, would he really enjoy the same result?
舒尔茨先生和丹先生认为进口的附加税是刻意用来做为注意唤醒剂和谈判筹码。好让尼克松那位德州人的财政部长约翰˙ 康纳利,走在国际金融的大街上,手持双枪亮晃。在这样的威吓下,美国的贸易伙伴们全都乖乖就范。十二月不到,他们就同意让美元贬值,附加税也跟着取消。尼克松当时将美元的贬值宣传成政治上的胜利。不过如果奥巴马如法泡制,他会真的赢得同样的结果吗?
The obvious difference is that in 1971 America was locked into a system of fixed parities. Bypegging to the dollar, a currency was automatically fixed to everything else. Since July 2008China has pegged the yuan to the greenback. But over that period its currency has swung upand down against those of its trading partners and competitors. On a trade-weighted basisthe yuan is back to where it was when the financial crisis started. Indeed, compared withChina s emerging-market competitors in its big export markets, the yuan is about 12%more expensive today than it was before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, according to ameasure calculated by the Hong KongMonetary Authority. By this indicator China s currency is about 25% above its level in 2005.
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