Olympionomics;The dismal dash;Which economist will winthemedal-prediction gold?
奥运经济学;令人沮丧的百米冲刺;哪位经济学家能够成为奖牌预测大赛的冠军呢?
Athletic prowess is not all that is being tested at this year s Olympic games. There will also beteams of econometricians battling it out to predict how many medals will be won by the hostnation.
今年的伦敦奥运会比的已经不仅仅是运动员高超的技艺。还有计量经济学家们组成的各支代表队将在场上进行激烈地角逐,争夺预测东道主英国奖牌数量大赛的冠军。
Over the years economists have deployed all sorts of mental gymnastics in their search for amodel that can reliably forecast Olympic winners. Initial expectations that medal tallieswould be closely correlated with the population and per-capita wealth of a country weresoon dashed. The models leapt over the hurdle of statistical significance only when a thirdvariable was addedhow many medals the country won last timebut this did not add muchby way of explanation.
在过去的几年里,经济学家们使出浑身解数,想要找到一种能够预测奥运会奖牌数量的可靠模型。一开始,他们认为一个国家在奥运会上所获奖牌的数量可能和这个国家的人口以及人均收入有紧密联系。但这样的想法很快就被排除了。而那些可以不需要考虑显著性差异的预测模型只有当加入第三个变量时才能够成立。但换句话说,这样的变量也起不了太大的作用。
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