Apart from the persistence of good performance from one Olympiadto the next,the dismal scientists hopped, skipped and jumped to two otherstatistically significant results.First, there was aSoviet effect, whereby the planned economies of the former communistbloc tended to outperform, presumably due to forcing talented youngsters to specialise andpumping them full of steroids . This effect began to fall with the Berlin Wall.
除了考虑到运动员在前后两届奥运会中能够持续发挥良好,这些神情沮丧的科学家们煞费苦心地找到了其他两种具有显著性差异的结果。首先,有这样一种前苏联效应,而且曾经以计划经济体制为指导的社会主义阵营国家正是凭借着这样的一种效应才在奥运赛场上表现得异常出色。有人猜测,这些社会主义国家强迫那些富有才华的年轻运动员们专攻竞技比赛,并给他们大量服用类固醇药物。但是这样的效应随着柏林墙的倒塌也开始日渐步入下风。
Second, the host nation tends to win more medals than it does at any other time. Why it doesso is unclear, as is the exact size of the host effectwhich is why, for economists,predicting how many medals Britain will bag is the equivalent of winning the 100-metredash. Emily Williams, the torchbearer for the Tuck School of Business team that won themedal-forecasting gold last time with 95% accuracy, tips Britain s athletes to win 62 medals, up from 47 four years earlier in Beijing. That would be a record haul forBritain, and place it fourth overall, behind America , China , and Russia .
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