在20世纪80年代早期,Dalio就开始积累决策规律以备引导他日后的投资。以后的日子里,他会根据这些规律预测事实的准确度来修改它们。现在这项工作已由计算机来处理,从而得出大量决策规律的组合并将其应用于Bridgewater投资的约100项流动资产中。比如在去年,因为不同寻常的是,在去杠杆化进程中政府债券和黄金会同时涨价,这些决策规律指导他同时握有二者。果不其然,他是正确的。
What Mr Dalio calls the timeless and universal core of his economic ideas is set out in a20-page Template for Understanding that he wrote shortly after the collapse of LehmanBrothers in 2008 and recently updated. The document begins: The economy is like amachine. This machine may look complex but is, he insists, relatively simple even if it isnot well understood. Mr Dalio models the macroeconomy from the bottom up, by focusingon the individual transactions that are the machine s moving parts. Conventional economicsdoes not pay enough attention to the individual components of supply and, above all,demand, he says. To understand demand properly, you must know whether it is funded bythe buyers own money or by credit from others.
Dalio所谓的不受时间限制,放之四海而皆准的经济思想核心陈述于20页的《用于理解的模板》中。他写于2008年雷曼兄弟破产后不久并于近日更新。该文件以经济就像一台机器开始,他坚信,这台机器可能看起来复杂,但实际上它是相对简单的,即使是在它不被很好地理解的情况下。Dalio通过对经济机器的移动组成部分个体交易,来自下而上地模拟宏观经济。他说,传统经济学对个体组成的供应尤其是他们的需求关注不够。要恰当地了解需求,你就必须知道为它提供资金的钱是来自购买者自己还是从他人的借贷。
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