A huge amount of Bridgewater s efforts goes into gathering data on credit and equity, andunderstanding how that affects demand from individual market participants, such as a bank,or from a group of participants . Bridgewaterpredicted the euro-zone debt crisis by totting up how much debt would need to berefinanced and when; and by examining all the potential buyers of that debt and their abilityto buy it. Mr Volcker describes the degree of detail in Mr Dalio s work as mind-blowing andadmits to feeling sometimes that he has a bigger staff, and produces more relevantstatistics and analyses, than the Federal Reserve.
Bridgewater公司花了大力气来收集有关信贷和普通股的数据,并分析其是如何影响单个市场参与者比如一家银行和一群参与者的需求的。该公司通过对需要再贷款的债务总值的合计,以及对欧元区债务潜在购买者的数量和他们的购买能力的研究,成功预测了欧元区的债务危机和其发生的时间。Volcker如此描述Dalio工作的细节详细程度叹为观止,他也承认,在有些时候他有更强大的团队,并能给出比美联储更中肯的统计数据和分析。
Two sorts of credit cycle are at the heart of Mr Dalio s economic model: the business cycle,which typically lasts five to eight years, and a long-term debt cycle, which canlast 50-70 years. A business cycle usually ends in a recession, because the central bank raisesthe interest rate, reducing borrowing and demand. The debt cycle ends in deleveragingbecause there is a shortage of capable providers of capital and/or a shortage of capablerecipients of capital that cannot be rectified by the centralbank changing the cost of money. Business cycles happen often, they are well understoodand policymakers are fairly adept at managing them. A debt cycle tends to come along in acountry once in a lifetime, tends to be poorly understood and is often mishandled bypolicymakers.
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