Dalio的经济模式中有两种核心的信贷周期:通常持续5-8年的商业周期和长期的债务周期,后者长达50-70年。一次商业周期一般在经济衰退中结束,因为在经济衰退期,中央银行会提高利率,以降低贷款和需求。债务周期结束于去杠杆化过程中,此时缺乏有能力的资金提供者或资金接收者,而中央银行却无法通过改变资金成本来加以调节。。商业周期时常产生,它们易于理解,也是政策制定者们善于控制的;然而,对某个国家而言,债务周期往往在人一生中只发生一次,所以他们对此不甚了解且往往处理不当。
An ordinary recession can be ended by the central bank lowering the interest rate again. Adeleveraging is much harder to end. According to Mr Dalio, it usually requires somecombination of debt restructurings and write-offs, austerity, wealth transfers from rich topoor and money-printing. A beautiful deleveraging is one in which all these elementscombine to keep the economy growing at a nominal rate that is higher than the nominalinterest rate.
中央银行通过降低利率来解决一般情况下的经济衰退。而去杠杆化远非如此简单,据Dalio称,它通常需要均衡债务重调与销账、财政紧缩、财富由富有阶层到贫困阶层的转移以及钞票印刷之间的关系。所谓美丽的去杠杆化是指能综合所有提及的因素从而保持经济的名义增长率高于名义利率。
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