Print too little money and the result is an ugly, deflationary deleveraging ; printtoo much and the deleveraging may become inflationary, as in Weimar Germany. AlthoughMr Dalio says he fears being misunderstood as saying print a lot of money and everythingwill be OK, which I don t believe, all deleveragings have ended with the printing of significantamounts of money. But it has to be in balance with other policies.
印制过少货币的结果是丑陋的、通货紧缩的去杠杆化;印制过多则会导致类似德国魏玛的通货膨胀的去杠杆化。Dalio说我并不同意所有去杠杆化都要大量地印制货币,那么只要印制钞票就会万事大吉的观点。但是这确实需要和其他政策均衡作用。即使他说自己担心被人误解。
Mr Dalio admits to being wrong roughly a third of the time; indeed, he attributes a big part ofhis success to managing the risk of bad calls. And the years ahead are likely to provide aserious test of whether the economic machine is as simple as he says. For now, he is in amore optimistic mood thanks to the European Central Bank s recent moves, in effect, toprint money. Although he still expects debt restructuring in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland,on top of that in Greece, he says that the risk of chaos has been reduced and we are nowcalming ourselves down.Here s hoping he is right again.
Dalio承认他可能在犯第三次错误,而事实上,他把自己成功的大部分归功于对错误预测的风险的把握上。而且,过去的几年似乎是对他严峻的考验验证经济机器是否同他说的一样简单。就现在来说,因为今日欧洲中央银行正实行的货币印刷举措,他处于较乐观的心态。即使他仍希望西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利和爱尔兰尤其是希腊的债务重组。他说混乱的风险已被降低,我们正在逐步安定下来。这一次,我们希望它仍然是对的。
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