然而,商品价格或税收的增长只能暂时影响通胀,因为一年后价格上涨将不具可比性。让央行行长们夜不能寐的是这将导致一种更恶性的通胀。价格上涨改变通胀预期,致使工人为维持购买力而要求涨工资,企业推动价格上涨,从而产生一个恶性工资价格螺旋。
These second-round effects are worth losing sleep over, but only when there is alreadyinflationary pressure in the wider economy, from a tight labour market and firms runningfactories at full pelt. Such overheating seems some way off for advanced economies. Theunemployment rate is in double digits in the euro area, above 9% in America and 7.9% inBritain. Wage growth has been weak, running below 1% in the euro zone and at around 2% inAmerica and Britain.
只有劳动力市场紧缩,企业利用全部产能,致使在更大范围的经济已经存在通胀压力时,这些第二轮效应才值得人们为之辗转反侧。这种过热似乎对发达国家来说遥不可及。欧元区失业率达两位数,在美国超过 9%,在英国超过7.9%。工资涨幅不大,欧元区不到1%,而美国和英国在2%左右。
Inflation expectations have edged up a little in recent months. But even if workers expectedinflation to let rip, they would be in a bind. Karen Ward of HSBC reckons anxious employeeswon t ask for more pay for fear that they will end up getting the sack instead.
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